Swing states, mail-in votes, litigation threats… there was so much to keep track of as the election news rolled in this week, and it was hard to contextualize it toward results. It looked like Trump’s victory before Biden’s, but how convincing were those hints? It seemed like none of the news channels would give us a firm number until the very end. But in the thick of it, that was the only question any of us wanted answered—just how likely was either candidate to win?
When it comes to pasting a number on complex probabilities, I tend to trust those who make the most money off of getting the odds right. Here’s what the betting world said about the last few days; I’ve put some key states on there and when the Associated Press called them for Trump or Biden.
So, if you genuinely expected Trump to win by the end of Tuesday, you weren’t alone!